Climate change is now recognised internationally as a major issue affecting all nation states. Policymakers require reliable climate-modelling scenarios to determine effective strategies for economic development. However, climate models can only provide plausible scenarios for Europe if they are tested and validated against past climates. The frequency, magnitude and rate of past climate changes are incompletely known, but diverse proxy-climate sources imply there were abrupt climate changes in the mid-late Holocene that had significant effects on human societies in Europe and elsewhere. Hitherto under-used primary proxy-climate data sources in Europe are mires and lakes. Mires in northern Europe provide excellent multi-proxy data on past climates, having robust replicable records with decadal resolution. Their stratigraphy notably defines episodes of abrupt climate change; further south in Europe, these climate shifts can also be defined by major lake-level changes. This project will generate continuous records of proxy-climate data from mire sites in transects across Europe, and compare with complementary data on lake-level changes, to focus on episodes of past abrupt climate change. The project will generate a pan-European perspective on climate changes of the past 4500 years, and through study of mire carbon-balance an asssessment of the 'Global Warming Potential' over that period. The benefits include a much clearer perspective on the magnitude, rate, frequency, causes and effects of past climate change in Europe.
Climate change is now recognised internationally as a major issue affecting all nation states. Policymakers require reliable climate-modelling scenarios to determine effective strategies for economic development. However, climate models can only provide plausible scenarios for Europe if they are tested and validated against past climates. The frequency, magnitude and rate of past climate changes are incompletely known, but diverse proxy-climate sources imply there were abrupt climate changes in the mid-late Holocene that had significant effects on human societies in Europe and elsewhere. Hitherto under-used primary proxy-climate data sources in Europe are mires and lakes. Mires in northern Europe provide excellent multi-proxy data on past climates, having robust replicable records with decadal resolution. Their stratigraphy notably defines episodes of abrupt climate change; further south in Europe, these climate shifts can also be defined by major lake-level changes. This project will generate continuous records of proxy-climate data from mire sites in transects across Europe, and compare with complementary data on lake-level changes, to focus on episodes of past abrupt climate change. The project will generate a pan-European perspective on climate changes of the past 4500 years, and through study of mire carbon-balance an asssessment of the 'Global Warming Potential' over that period. The benefits include a much clearer perspective on the magnitude, rate, frequency, causes and effects of past climate change in Europe.